Gut Bacteria Predicts Melanoma Recurrence with Up to 94% Accuracy

For patients diagnosed with high-risk melanoma, the period following surgical tumor removal is a critical window. While immunotherapy has revolutionized post-surgical (adjuvant) care, a persistent challenge remains: the treatment doesn't work for everyone. Approximately 25% to 40% of patients see their cancer return despite these advanced therapies.

New research led by NYU Langone Health’s Perlmutter Cancer Center suggests that the key to predicting and perhaps preventing that recurrence may lie within the bacteria inhabiting the human digestive tract.

A new marker for recurrence

In a study recently published in the journal Cell, researchers analyzed stool samples from 674 patients enrolled in a global clinical trial. They discovered that specific bacterial groups, or "taxa," in the gut could predict whether melanoma would recur with up to 94% accuracy.

CURE spoke with senior author Jiyoung Ahn, who holds a PhD and is a professor at NYU Grossman School of Medicine and associate director of Population Research at Perlmutter Cancer Center, about this study.

For a patient standing at the crossroads of surgery and immunotherapy, this research points toward a future of truly personalized oncology. Instead of a standard "wait and see" approach, an oncologist might one day use a simple stool test to determine a patient's risk profile. If the microbiome suggests a high risk of recurrence, the care team could potentially tailor the intensity or type of therapy from day one, providing a proactive shield against the return of the disease.

Transcript

Your study found that analyzing specific bacterial groups in the in the gut could predict melanoma recurrence with a very high level of accuracy. For a patient who has just undergone surgery and is starting immunotherapy, how might this microbial footprint change the way their oncologist approaches follow-up care?

The big question in melanoma immunotherapy is not everyone responded to the therapy. So, some people, only 20% to 40%, responded to the cancer therapy. So, the big question is, before initiation of the cancer treatment, can we tell then who will respond, who will not respond? So, that can help the patient and clinicians to make informed decisions on their therapy choice. So, the idea is really whether pre-diagnosed, the baseline before initiation, the baseline microbiome, is an important biomarker portal, then who will respond to the therapy or not respond to the therapy? So that's the main question.

Transcript has been edited for clarity and conciseness.

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